Monday, March 12, 2012

A case of Money Fever cures anemic bankroll

In the last several months, I've often mentioned a video pokergame called Multi-Pay Poker. We have little high-quality quartervideo poker in the Chicago area, and casinos that offer Williamsmultiple-game machines at the quarter level move high on my list withthis game.

The Williams units are called Multi-Pay Plus - they offerMulti-Pay Poker plus several other games on the same machine. Otherofferings include an interesting twist on video poker called MoneyFever.

Money Fever players want flushes. Lots of 'em. Those in theknow do whatever they can to force a high flush rate.

Most of the time, Money Fever players are up against one of thetoughest pay tables in video poker. In the full-pay version,available in a few Las Vegas casinos, the payoffs per coin assumingfive coins played looks like this:

Royal flush, 800; straight flush, 150; four of a kind, 20; fullhouse, 9; flush, 6; straight, 5; three of a kind, 3; two pair, 1.

There are several other pay tables available. Some reduce fullhouse and flush paybacks to 8-5 instead of the full-pay 9-6; otherscut straights to 4-1 while increasing four of a kind to 25-for-1.All pay tables look nasty, with payoffs starting at two pair,instead of a pair of Jacks or better as is common in most videopoker games. Without those high-pair payoffs, the game is extremelyvolatile. Streaks with no winners at all are much longer than inmost video poker games.

Despite all that, Money Fever can be a high-paying game. DougReul, writing in the May-June issue of Dan Paymar's Video PokerTimes, reported that the full-pay version pays 100.5 percent withexpert play. The versions available in the Midwest are not 100.5percent games, but they're still better than they seem at a glance,paying experts between 97 percent and 98 percent.

Why? Because when the player hits a flush, Money Fever modekicks in. For the next seven hands, the player is paid on each cardof his flush suit. Say a player betting five coins at a time hits aflush in spades. On his next hand he has no winners against the paytable, but winds up with two spades. He receives a five-coin payoffon each spade.

That turns a nothing hand into a 10-coin winner. Do that forseven hands and the Money Fever player pads his bankroll fast.

Strategy for the game has to be broken into two parts - astrategy for when the game is not in Money Fever mode, when we try tomaximize our chances of hitting a flush, and a strategy for thosenext seven hands after a flush, when we try to maximize our Fevermode winnings.

During regular play, we never discard all five cards - astrategy that is unlike Jacks or Better-based games. All handsinclude at least two cards of the same suit. If we have no betteroptions, we keep two suited cards and hope for a three-card draw to aflush that will launch our seven-hand fever.

There are other strategy differences. In Money Fever, we breakup a straight to draw to a four-card straight flush. In Jacks orBetter, we would break up the straight only if we had four cards to aroyal flush.

Four cards to a flush is an important Money Fever hand. Wekeep four cards to a flush even if it includes three cards to aroyal. In Jacks or Better, we'd go for the royal flush.

We also draw to three-card flushes in Money Fever, which we'djust discard in Jacks or Better. In fact, we break up four-cardstraights and even discard pairs to draw to three-card flushes.

In Money Fever mode, our strategy is even more extreme. Wehold most hands that are winners on the regular pay table. But webreak up two pair to hold one or three cards in our bonus suit.

With two pair and two bonus cards, our play depends on whetherthe bonus cards are included in the two pair. If they are, wediscard the fifth card and try for a full house to go with the bonus.If one of our two bonus cards is the extra card, we hold all five.One exception: If the bonus cards form two parts of a straight flushor royal flush, we break up the two pair and just hold the bonuscards.

If we have a bonus card, we toss away pairs and three-cardstraight flushes if they're not in our bonus suit. We dump four-cardstraights even if the fifth card isn't in our bonus suit. We'rebetter off taking the chance that our draw will bring cards in ourfever suit.

If you hit another flush while you're in Fever mode, themachine stores the information until your first seven-hand run iscompleted. Then you start another seven hands of Money Fever.

That's a fever any player would be thrilled to catch.

In Sunday Showcase: nickel comparison.

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Fishermen seek release points

It grates on my sensibilities when fishing the Chicago lakefront to have to take care of business by swinging open the driver's door, then acting like I am looking for something on the dashboard.

I'm a reasonably respectable 54-year-old with a wife and four kids. There's absolutely no reason I should have to stoop to that.

But it's tough to find a portable toilet or open permanent bathroom on long stretches of the lakefront. For fishermen in particular, it's a dilemma.

Bikers can whiz past at death-delivering speeds to reach a place to take a wizz in minutes. Runners can do the same.

For fishermen, walkers and birders, not so much.

With fishermen, there's also gear. My basic set up — Falcon rod, Shimano reel, lures, wet bag — is worth about $300. My camera and bag doubles that. With a second rod, the value triples.

Not the sort of things you leave unattended to walk a mile or two to find a restroom.

That point was driven home last week, on the North Side and South Side.

On Aug. 1, I fished 39th/Oakwood with Ray Hinton for the reopening of perch season. As the sun rose and the Chatham man sipped coffee, he pointed out that there was no portable toilet in sight.

A few days later, I also checked that wonderful and newly accessible area between 31st and McCormick Place. None there either.

The options are to pack up and drive off or to air your privates in public.

It's ridiculous, and a fixable problem. But it's one the Chicago Park District has known about for decades and not taken care of satisfactorily.

In the past, the issue for fishermen would be hashed out in the mayor's fishing advisory committee with temporary fixes. But that committee has lapsed into rubberstamping park district policies more than being an advocate.

Winter and early spring are far worse for bathroom access when permanent restrooms are closed.

Some winters back, after an ice fishing event at Belmont Harbor, a portable toilet was left on shore. Fishermen took delight that other lakefront users — joggers, dog-walkers, bikers, birders — used it even more than fishermen.

That issue is hardly restricted to the South Side.

The evening of the perch opener, Charlie Yates made a request on Facebook from the North Side.

''May I ask your help regarding Montrose Harbor?'' he asked. ''I've tried two alderman offices and the Park District with no luck. The issue is the fact that on the east side of the harbor there is one of those Porta-Pottys and not too far from that is a permanent facility. Now why can't we fisherman have a Porta-Potty on the west side, the golf course side. I don't think this is an unreasonable request or an expensive one.''

He's absolutely right. Nor am I surprised that when he started a petition, lakefront users other than fishermen wanted to sign it.

Look, most of us who are outdoors a lot have learned to take care of business however necessary.

I put myself through the first couple years of college by landscaping summers in Washington. I can go by a petunia plant — cue the Tiny Tim parody — and you would never know. But nobody should have to do that in a park setting.

Decent bathroom options are a basic service that should be properly provided by the Park District.

Places and faces

John Kidd Jr. earned "Heroes Among Us'' status in the Aug. 15 issue of People for his 20 years of introducing 10,000 urban kids to the outdoors through "Fishin' Buddies!'' . . . Multiple stories swirl around Greg Myerson's possible world-record striped bass (81.88 pounds). He caught it on live eels Thursday night near Westbrook, Conn. The International Game Fish Association currently recognizes a 78-pound striper.

Wild things

The Perseid meteor shower, my favorite sky event, peaks Saturday night, unfortunately on full moon. Better to look before dawn the next couple mornings.

Stray cast

The Sox are like that smallmouth bass you can't quite hook in the eddy behind the big rock. The Cubs are like eDNA testing for Asian carp.

The area between 31st and McCormick Place, shown here after the rain Saturday morning, is like many other long stretches of the lakefront: visually beautiful and vitally lacking in basic creature needs. | Dale Bowman~for the sun-times

Business events scheduled for Wednesday

Major business events and economic events scheduled for Wednesday:

WASHINGTON — Labor Department releases Consumer Price Index for September, 8:30 a.m.

WASHINGTON — Commerce Department releases housing starts for September, 8:30 a.m.

WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve releases Beige Book, 2 p.m.

Abbott Laboratories releases quarterly financial results.

American Express Co. releases quarterly financial results.

AMR Corp. releases quarterly financial results.

EBay Inc. releases quarterly financial results.

E-Trade Financial Corp. releases quarterly financial results.

Morgan Stanley releases quarterly financial results.

Supervalu Inc. releases quarterly financial results.

United Technologies Corp. releases quarterly financial results.

Wynn Resorts Ltd. releases quarterly financial results.

FRANKFURT — Event marking the end of European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet's term.

PARIS — Energy ministers and industry leaders meet in Paris to discuss risks to oil markets.

Wal-Mart reverses revenue decline in US business

NEW YORK (AP) — Wal-Mart's effort to reverse a two-year sales slump at its U.S. namesake stores is working.

The world's largest retailer said Wednesday during a meeting with analysts that revenue at its namesake stores in the U.S. that have been open at least a year rose three months in a row in July, August and September after nine quarters of declines.

Wal-Mart had promised a quarterly increase by the end of this year, and Wednesday's news indicates it could make good on that vow in the current quarter, which ends Oct. 28.

"We have had very positive momentum in the back half, especially in the U.S," said Charles Holley, Wal-Mart's executive vice president and chief financial officer. "We have more opportunities to grow more sales in the U.S. and around the world. But we will be deliberate."

Wal-Mart also said it expects its expenses to increase more slowly than its sales for the second year in a row. The last time that happened was 1992, Holley noted. Wal-Mart has vowed to reduce expenses even more aggressively over the next five years and put those savings into reducing the prices its customers pay.

The weak U.S. job market and other economic woes have strained the core low-income shoppers at Wal-Mart's namesake stores in the U.S., while the somewhat higher-income clientele of the company's Sam's Club warehouse stores has been more resilient. Wal-Mart's namesake stores in the U.S. also stumbled in recent years because of mistakes the company made in merchandising and pricing.

The chain, based in Bentonville, Arkansas, now has restocked thousands of products it scrapped in an overzealous bid to clean up its stores. It's also stopped using gimmicks such as slashing prices temporarily on select items and returned to its "everyday low price" strategy, the bedrock philosophy of founder Sam Walton.

Analysts have been closely watching for an end to the sales declines at Wal-Mart's namesake U.S. stores, which account for 62 percent of the company's total revenue. On Nov. 15, Wal-Mart will report its results for the current quarter.

"The progress is now visible in our business," said Bill Simon, president of Wal-Mart's U.S. stores. "We have confidence in our plan."

Mike Duke, CEO of Wal-Mart, told analysts that high unemployment is the top concern among its U.S. customers and many are still buying store-brand goods instead of national brands or opting for smaller packages to save money.

But the company has noticed that lower gas prices in recent months helped raise consumer spending toward the end of the month. Shoppers are still stretched and fragile, only buying what they need. But that loosening up just a bit was encouraging news after Wal-Mart has seen spending around the paycheck cycle become more pronounced over the past 12 to 18 months.

Economists closely watch how Wal-Mart shoppers are behaving since the company can be a bellwether for broader trends in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy.

In China, Mexico, Brazil with growing markets, Wal-Mart is seeing big opportunities in the rapidly growing middle class.

During the analysts' meeting a few miles from its headquarters, Wal-Mart said it expects its revenue to grow 5 percent to 7 percent in the fiscal year that ends in January 2013.

Additionally, the company outlined plans to open smaller stores in the U.S. and add more square footage overall around the world. Wal-Mart expects to add between 36 million to 39 million square feet globally this fiscal year and 45 million to 49 million square feet next year. It will cut capital spending 7.4 percent in the U.S. next fiscal year but increase capital spending abroad by 12 percent.

Wal-Mart also offered analysts a peak into its holiday strategies. It will add a free shipping alternative to fuel online sales. Customers who spend more than $45 online on clothing and consumables like food can get their bundled purchases shipped free to their home in three to five days. This is the first time Wal-Mart has offered permanent free shipping to customers' homes. The company also plans to spend twice as much on holiday advertising for TV as it did last year. That will help promote its new holiday layaway program, which starts Monday.

Shares rose 48 cents to close at $55.20.

Forgetfulness: A Role in Noncompliance With Antidepressant Treatment

Objectives: To determine the degree of noncompliance with antidepressant treatment in the Alberta population and to investigate the reasons for noncompliance.

Method: We used data from the Alberta Mental Health Survey, a telephone survey conducted in 2003 (n = 5323 adults), to produce population-based estimates of the frequency of noncompliance and the reported reasons for noncompliance.

Results: Reported noncompliance was 41.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.9% to 46.6%) for respondents taking 1, 2, or 3 antidepressants. Noncompliance for those taking 1 antidepressant was 42.0% (95%CI, 36.9% to 47.2%), whereas noncompliance for those taking 2 or 3 antidepressants was 39.4% (95%CI, 26.7% to 53.6%). Among respondents currently taking at least one antidepressant, 64.9% (95%CI, 57.4% to 71.7%) reported that forgetfulness was the most common reason for noncompliance. Of respondents taking 1 medication, 64.1% (95%CI, 56.0% to 71.4%) reported forgetfulness as did 71.3% (95%CI, 48.3% to 86.8%) of those taking 2 or 3 medications. Both the frequency of noncompliance and the reported reasons for noncompliance were independent of sex and age.

Conclusion: Our study replicates prior reports that indicate that noncompliance is common with antidepressant treatment. Forgetting to take medication is the most important reported reason for this noncompliance.

(Can J Psychiatry 2006;51:719-722)

Information on funding and support and author affiliations appears at the end of the article.

Clinical Implications

* Noncompliance with antidepressant treatment is a major clinical issue.

* Frequently cited reasons for noncompliance, such as "feeling better" or "side effects," are relatively unimportant.

* Simple memory aids such as dated blister packs, automated voice mail reminders, and patient education might help address this important issue.

Limitations

* These findings are derived from cross-sectional data, so we cannot confirm causal direction of associations.

* To confirm generalizability, we would need Canada-wide data.

* The sample size was too small to examine specific classes of antidepressants.

Key Words: antidepressant, noncompliance, forgetfulness

Noncompliance with prescribed medication is a major issue in medicine (for example, 1-3). Because of the authoritarian connotation of the word compliance, other terms are sometimes preferred, for example, adherence. Since antidepressants must be taken for extended periods of time, in some cases for life, noncompliance may have a significant impact on the individual (for example, relapse) as well as a broader economic and social impact. A metaanalysis revealed that patients suffering from depression are 3 times more likely to exhibit noncompliance with medical recommendations than patients without depression (4). Knowledge in this field is important because it can potentially lead to the development of interventions to improve compliance.

The general consensus is that noncompliance with antidepressant prescriptions is a major problem for depression treatment but that predictors are not well understood. Noncompliance manifests itself in several ways, including failure to fill a prescription, failure to take any medication, early discontinuation of medication (dropout), and failure to regularly take prescribed dosages. A recent survey provides an opportunity to describe noncompliance with antidepressant prescriptions in a population-based sample of adults in Alberta.

Methods

The AMHS was a cross-sectional, random digit dialing-based telephone survey that collected data from 5383 adults. Eligible individuals from various households were contacted and the participation rate among them was 77%. The detailed methods of this survey and its potential vulnerability to bias are described elsewhere (5).

We cross-tabulated raw data and calculated population estimates with 95%CIs, using weighted survey commands in Stata Software, (Release 8; Stata Corp, College Station, TX, 2003). We first determined how many respondents were taking one or more antidepressant medications. Then we examined the prevalence of reported noncompliance for antidepressant use in this subpopulation. Finally, we tabulated the prevalence of self-reported reasons for noncompliance. The latter 2 stages depended on how participants answered 2 questions:

* "When you take antidepressants, are there any days when you took less than you were supposed to?"

Answer: yes or no.

* "Why did you take less antidepressant medication than you were supposed to?"

Answer:

1. You forgot.

2. You felt better.

3. The medicine was not helping.

4. You thought the problem would get better without more medication.

5. You could not afford to pay for the medication.

6. You were too embarrassed to take the medicine.

7. You wanted to solve the problem without medication.

8. The medicine caused side effects that made you stop.

9. You were afraid you would get dependent on the medication.

10. Other reason.

This list was based on the reasons most commonly reported in pilot studies. The interviewers did not read this list to the respondents. The interviewers instead categorized the replies on the basis of the participants' spontaneous responses. The "other reason" response category was used when an answer did not fit into one of the categories or when the interviewer was unsure how to classify a response. The investigators subsequently receded these responses. Participants were allowed to give more than one answer for each antidepressant. Most gave one answer for each medication, but some gave up to 5 answers, all of which are accounted for in our analysis. In cases in which a respondent gave the same reason more than once, we counted this reason only once.

Results

Respondents taking antidepressants were taking between 1 and 3 antidepressants, but most were only taking 1. Population estimates for the proportion of Albertans taking 1, 2, and 3 antidepressants were 6.3% (95%CI, 5.7% to 7.0%), 0.8% (95%CI, 0.6% to 1.1%), and 0.1% (95%CI, 0% to 0.1%), respectively. Stratification of the data by sex and age showed that neither was related to the number of antidepressants taken (data not shown).

Noncompliance was reported by 41.7% (95%CI, 36.9% to 46.6%) of the total sample of respondents taking antidepressants (Table 1). Stratification of the data indicates that neither sex nor age predict the frequency of noncompliance (Table 1). When the data were stratified by the number of antidepressants taken, 42.0% (95%CI, 36.9% to 47.2%) of individuals taking a single medication reported noncompliance. Similarly, 39.4% (95%CI, 26.7% to 53.6%) of participants taking 2 or 3 antidepressants reported noncompliance. These data do not provide statistical evidence that noncompliance was different across these groups. Further, this result does not support the hypothesis that the complexity of the antidepressant regimen is a determinant of compliance.

It is estimated that 64.9% (95%CI, 57.4% to 71.7%) of the population forgets to take its antidepressants, making forgetting the major reason for noncompliance (Table 2). The catch-all category for "other reason," reported by 26.8% (95%CI, 20.6% to 34.2%), was the second most frequent reason for noncompliance. Common examples of these reasons for not taking medication included "ran out," "could not access it," and "did not need it." The population estimates for the 8 other categories were low. Stratification of the data for the subpopulation that forgot showed that neither sex nor age predicts forgetfulness (Table 2). Stratification by the number of antidepressants taken showed that forgetting was reported by 64.1% (95%CI, 56.0% to 71.4%) of respondents taking a single antidepressant and by 71.3% (95%CI, 48.3% to 86.8%) of those taking 2 or 3 antidepressants. The estimates did not provide statistical evidence that the degree of forgetting was different between the 2 groups.

Discussion

Our analysis suggests that noncompliance with antidepressant use is an important issue (Table 1). Contrary to expectation, the data did not suggest that compliance was lower for those taking 2 or 3 medications rather than 1. Neither sex nor age predicted the degree of noncompliance. Forgetfulness was the most frequently reported reason for noncompliance and was not dependent on sex, age, or the number of antidepressants taken (Table 2).

Forgetfulness has not been identified as a major determinant for noncompliance with antidepressant treatment (6,7). Most studies do not include forgetting as a possible reason and most are based on small clinical samples. This raises a public health issue that can be addressed by simple means, for example, dated blister packs, automated voice mail reminders, and patient education. Randomized clinical trials have provided evidence that blister packaging can increase compliance with drug treatment (8,9).

Two important issues require future study: we must identify the subpopulation actually taking antidepressants for depression rather than for other indications, and to assess its clinical significance, we must quantify the extent of noncompliance.

Funding and Support

No funding was obtained for this paper.

Acknowledgement

We thank Jeanne Williams for her assistance with Stata programming.

[Sidebar]

Abbreviations used in this article

AMHS Alberta Mental Health Survey

CI confidence interval

[Sidebar]

R�sum� : L'oubli : un r�le dans la non-observance du traitement antid�presseur

Objectifs : D�terminer le degr� de non-observance du traitement antid�presseur dans la population de l'Alberta et rechercher les raisons de la non-observance.

M�thode : Nous avons utilis� les donn�es de l'enqu�te sur la sant� mentale de l'Alberta, un sondage t�l�phonique men� en 2003 (� = 5 323 adultes), afin de produire des estimations bas�es dans la population de la fr�quence de la non-observance et des raisons d�clar�es de la non-observance.

R�sultats : La non-observance d�clar�e �tait de 41,7 % (95 % intervalle de confiance [1C], 36,9 % � 46,6 %) pour les r�pondants qui prenaient 1, 2 ou 3 antid�presseurs. La non-observance pour ceux qui prenaient un seul antid�presseur �tait de 42,0 % (95 % IC, 36,9 % � 47,2 %), tandis que la non-observance pour ceux qui prenaient 2 ou 3 antid�presseurs �tait de 39,4 % (95 % IC, 26,7 % � 53,6 %). Parmi les r�pondants prenant pr�sentement au moins un antid�presseur, 64,9 % (95 % IC, 57,4 % � 71,7 %) ont d�clar� que l'oubli �tait la raison la plus fr�quente de la non-observance. Parmi les r�pondants prenant un seul m�dicament, 64,1 % (95 % IC, 56,0 % � 71,4 %) ont �voqu� l'oubli, tout comme 71,3 % (95 % IC, 48,3 % � 86,8 %) de ceux prenant 2 ou 3 m�dicaments. Tant la fr�quence de la non-observance que les raisons d�clar�es de la non-observance �taient ind�pendantes du sexe et de l'�ge

Conclusion : Notre �tude reproduit des r�sultats ant�rieurs qui indiquent que la non-observance est fr�quente dans le traitement antid�presseur. Oublier de prendre le m�dicament est la raison la plus importante d�clar�e pour cette non-observance.

[Reference]

References

1. Blackwell B. From compliance to alliance: a quarter century of research. Neth J Med 1996;199:140-9.

2. Cramer JA, Spilker B, editors. Patient compliance in medical practice and clinical trials. New York (NY): Raven Press; 1991.

3. Osterberg L, Blaschkc T. Adherence to medication. New Engl J Med 2005;353:487-97.

4. DiMatteo MR, Lepper HS, Croghan TW. Depression is a risk factor for noncompliance with medical treatment: meta-analysis of the effects of anxiety and depression on patient adherence. Arch Intern Med 2000;160:2101-7.

5. Kassam A, Carter C, Patten, SB. Sedative hypnotic use in Alberta. Can J Psychiatry 2006;51:287-94.

6. Demyttenaere K. Risk factors and predictors of compliance in depression. Eur Neuropsychopharmacol 2003;13(Suppl 3):S69-S75.

7. Masand PS. Tolerabiliry and adherence issues in antidepressant therapy. Clin Ther 2003;25:2289-304.

8. Simmons D, Upjohn M, Gamble GD. Can medication packaging improve glycemic control and blood pressure in type 2 diabetes? Results from a randomized controlled trial. Diabetes Care 2000;23:153-6.

9. Wright JM, Htun Y, Forman P, Ballard RC. Evaluation of the use of calendar blister packaging on patient compliance with STD syndromic treatment regimens. Sex Transm Dis 1999;26:556-63.

[Author Affiliation]

Andrew G Bulloch, PhD1, Carol E Adair, MSc, PhD2, Scott B Patten, MD, PhD3

[Author Affiliation]

Manuscript received October 2005, revised, and accepted May 2006.

1 Professor, Department of Physiology and Biophysics, and Hotchkiss Brain Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta.

2 Associate Professor, Departments of Community Health Sciences and Psychiatry, and Hotchkiss Brain Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta.

3 Professor, Departments of Community Health Sciences and Psychiatry, and Hotchkiss Brain Institute, Faculty of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta.

Address for correspondence: Dr AG Bulloch, Department of Physiology and Biophysics, University of Calgary, Faculty of Medicine, 3330 Hospital Drive NW, Calgary, AB, T2N 4N1; bulloch@ucalgary.ca

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

On to the 108th

EDITORIAL Comment

Will the new Congress be banker--friendly?

Banking industry lobbyists will have full plates when the 108th Congress convenes after the first of the year. Although one issue of more than passing interest to bankers - terrorism reinsurance - was squared away in the lame duck session after the November elections, the 107th Congress left some biggies hanging - most notably FDIC reform, bankruptcy reform and the question of banks having authority to deal in real estate.

Many observers see the Republican gains in the House and Senate as positive for banking's agenda. The majority party sets the program, but the majorities are slim in both houses and only time will tell if this Congress is more banker-friendly than the last.

Take FDIC reform. Passed overwhelmingly by the House in a form mostly acceptable to the American Bankers Association and the Independent Community Bankers of America, the issue stalled in the Senate with opposition to a major component - increasing the insurance ceiling to $130,000 per account - from the Secretary of the Treasury, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and the ranking Republican on the Banking Committee, Sen. Phil Gramm of Texas.

Gramm has retired, of course, and the top Republican on the committee is its soon-tobe new chairman, Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama. Like Gramm, he is opposed to raising FDIC insurance to $130,000, as is the top Democrat, Sen. Paul Sarbanes of Maryland and Sarbanes-Oxley Act fame. So there's one tough nut to crack for the lobbyists. It's hard to see the agreed-upon reforms staying together as a package.

How about bankruptcy reform? Larger Republican majorities ought to improve chances for adoption, but they may not be large enough to get past the emotional hangup over bankruptcy options for abortion clinics.

On another hot button issue the odds definitely seem to be stacked against bankers. Sen. Shelby co-sponsored the National Association of Realtors' legislation to bar the Treasury and the Fed from letting banks into real estate brokerage, in spite of enabling legislation in the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. "If he (Sen. Shelby) chooses to move the Realtors' bill aggressively," warns the ABA Government Relations staff, "there could be a real problem for us on this issue."

If that's not enough, Sen. Shelby and Sen. Sarbanes are both in favor of stronger privacy rules for the financial services industry and will likely pursue legislation on this issue, according to ABA and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors. And Sen. Shelby is reportedly a supporter of the credit union lobby.

The good news may be that not much change is expected by these trade groups in the House Financial Service Committee's agenda. Rep. Michael Oxley (R-Ohio) remains in charge and will probably continue to seek FDIC reform, according to the CSBS. The ranking member in the 107th Congress, Rep. John LaFalce (D-N.Y.) retired and has been succeeded by Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.). The two have similar views, say ABA and CSBS. Both Congressmen were strong supporters of Gramm-Leach-Bliley and both are high on consumer protection issues.

So, the banking industry has some pretty big battles facing it in the 108th Congress. The point here is not just the lobbyists have their plates full. They are going to need all of the help they can get from the grass roots and that means you, dear reader, and your officers, directors and employees. And maybe you can recruit customers for the cause as well - like credit unions do.

Bill Poquette

Editor

[Sidebar]

"The majority party sets the program, but the majorities are slim in both houses and only time will tell if this Congress is more banker-- friendly than the last."

Avalanche terror as three are swept to their deaths

THREE climbers have died after they were caught in two separateavalanches on Scottish mountains yesterday.

Two were swept to their deaths as they climbed in a five-strongparty, and were caught in a moving wall of snow several hundredmetres in length which hurtled down the Coire na Ciste area of BenNevis.

Their bodies were found by rescuers buried under tons of snow,having been thrown 400 metres down the mountainside.

A third man was carried several hundred feet down the LiathachRidge in Torridon in Wester Ross. He was found alive by a companionsitting on top of the snow and appeared at first to have sufferedfrom just a broken arm.

However, he later died in hospital from internal injuries.

In the third incident, another man was being treated for a headinjury after surviving an avalanche on Beinn an Dothaidh in Argyll.

The alarm was raised on Ben Nevis about 10.50am by anotherclimber who watched in horror as the men were caught in the movingslab of snow.

Some members of Lochaber mountain rescue team walked into thecorrie to begin the search while others were airlifted further upthe mountain by a helicopter from RAF Lossiemouth.

They were later joined by a team from RAF Leuchars, who were onexercise near Newtonmore, and search and rescue dogs.

But both bodies were discovered in an area known as No 3 Gully onthe north face of the mountain.

One body was found in the debris about 12.50pm by rescuers usingsnow probes and a second was discovered about 90 minutes later, alsoburied in deep snow.

The names of the climbers had not been released last night whilenext of kin were being told. Northern Constabulary said a reportwould be submitted to the procurator fiscal.

One of the dead was from the Wiltshire area and the other fromWales. The survivors were still being interviewed last night.

Chief Inspector John Chisholm, of Northern Constabulary, said:"They were all well-equipped, highly experienced and European-accredited climbers. But it appears they were in the wrong place atthe wrong time."

He said a search of the area was carried out in case others werecaught up in the avalanche but no-one else was reported missing.

"Hundreds of people have been on the mountains in the last fewdays and thankfully we have had only one report of an avalanche.

"There was the possibility of more casualties but fortunatelynone occurred."

John Stevenson, leader of Lochaber mountain rescue team, said themen were near the top of the gully when they were struck by the wallof snow.

"They were caught in a slab avalanche which took them down thehill quite a distance and buried them at the bottom."

He said it was not a particularly risky route. "It shouldn't havebeen but we have quite a bit of snow about and the wind tends toshift it quite a bit. Unfortunately, they were just caught in thewrong place at the wrong time.

"These things do happen and I think these boys were just veryunlucky.

"You can see in a few places where the snow tends to build up,you get a very white, smooth finish to it, and these are the kind ofareas you would stay away from."

He said strong winds made conditions difficult for rescuers: "Itwas quite windy and there was always the risk of other slabs comingdown so you have to be very careful when putting people out there."

Avalanche experts said the cause of the avalanche remained amystery. The Sportscotland Avalanche Information Service's (SAIS)report for Lochaber from 6pm on Tuesday to 6pm last night put therisk of avalanches between 200m and 900m as low. Between 900m and1,340m the risk was moderate, with natural avalanches "unlikely" andhuman-triggered avalanches "possible".

Mark Diggins, spokesman for SAIS, said: "This is a tragedy andit's a bit of a mystery. Until we go in to investigate, we cannotsay what happened and how they got avalanched in that location."

He said the area where the incident occurred was on a north-easterly slope. Fresh snow and strong winds had created morehazardous areas but generally on south, west and north-westerlyaspects, and not on easterly faces.

"This avalanche occurred on an east or northern-easterly aspect.But maybe there was an anomaly that created a patch or an area ofunstable snow.

"We are going to send some people to investigate and hopefullyhave some answers soon. We don't know the circumstances of thisincident but we need to learn from it."

SAIS has also been monitoring surface hoar, a phenomenon rare inScotland but seen recently, mainly in the Cairngorms.

Mr Diggins said: "We have had an extremely cold and calm spell.What normally happens is you get a process of freezing and thawingand a consolidation of the snow pack. What we've had recently isalmost the opposite of that because its been so cold the snow hasbecome sugar-like and has not bonded and consolidated."

WHY SO DEADLY?

CLIMBERS across the Highlands had been warned that unusually calmand extremely cold weather has raised the risk of avalanches.

Members of the Scottish Avalanche Information Service have beenmonitoring surface hoar, a phenomenon rarely seen in Scotland.

The snow crystals form a slippery layer when buried under snowand are the cause of many avalanches in the Alps and North America,according to SAIS.

Mark Diggins of SAIS said hoar surface had formed over about tendays of calm and extremely cold weather.

Normally, the crystals, which are created by vapour rising upfrom layers of deposited snow and then freezing on the surface, aredestroyed in a thaw or by high winds.

Mr Diggins said: "What we have got is an unusual climate becauseof this prolonged cold spell.

"This has been throwing up some unusual things, one of them beinghoar surface.

"The crystals can be quite dangerous if buried by further fallsof snow as they form a very, very weak layer. The crystals are a bitlike soap flakes and create a very slippery layer."

SAIS teams have been checking for hoar surface during routineassessments of avalanche risks in the northern and southernCairngorms, Lochaber, Creag Meagaidh and Glencoe.

The SAIS posts reports and forecasts online.

Avalanche terror as three are swept to their deaths

THREE climbers have died after they were caught in two separateavalanches on Scottish mountains yesterday.

Two were swept to their deaths as they climbed in a five-strongparty, and were caught in a moving wall of snow several hundredmetres in length which hurtled down the Coire na Ciste area of BenNevis.

Their bodies were found by rescuers buried under tons of snow,having been thrown 400 metres down the mountainside.

A third man was carried several hundred feet down the LiathachRidge in Torridon in Wester Ross. He was found alive by a companionsitting on top of the snow and appeared at first to have sufferedfrom just a broken arm.

However, he later died in hospital from internal injuries.

In the third incident, another man was being treated for a headinjury after surviving an avalanche on Beinn an Dothaidh in Argyll.

The alarm was raised on Ben Nevis about 10.50am by anotherclimber who watched in horror as the men were caught in the movingslab of snow.

Some members of Lochaber mountain rescue team walked into thecorrie to begin the search while others were airlifted further upthe mountain by a helicopter from RAF Lossiemouth.

They were later joined by a team from RAF Leuchars, who were onexercise near Newtonmore, and search and rescue dogs.

But both bodies were discovered in an area known as No 3 Gully onthe north face of the mountain.

One body was found in the debris about 12.50pm by rescuers usingsnow probes and a second was discovered about 90 minutes later, alsoburied in deep snow.

The names of the climbers had not been released last night whilenext of kin were being told. Northern Constabulary said a reportwould be submitted to the procurator fiscal.

One of the dead was from the Wiltshire area and the other fromWales. The survivors were still being interviewed last night.

Chief Inspector John Chisholm, of Northern Constabulary, said:"They were all well-equipped, highly experienced and European-accredited climbers. But it appears they were in the wrong place atthe wrong time."

He said a search of the area was carried out in case others werecaught up in the avalanche but no-one else was reported missing.

"Hundreds of people have been on the mountains in the last fewdays and thankfully we have had only one report of an avalanche.

"There was the possibility of more casualties but fortunatelynone occurred."

John Stevenson, leader of Lochaber mountain rescue team, said themen were near the top of the gully when they were struck by the wallof snow.

"They were caught in a slab avalanche which took them down thehill quite a distance and buried them at the bottom."

He said it was not a particularly risky route. "It shouldn't havebeen but we have quite a bit of snow about and the wind tends toshift it quite a bit. Unfortunately, they were just caught in thewrong place at the wrong time.

"These things do happen and I think these boys were just veryunlucky.

"You can see in a few places where the snow tends to build up,you get a very white, smooth finish to it, and these are the kind ofareas you would stay away from."

He said strong winds made conditions difficult for rescuers: "Itwas quite windy and there was always the risk of other slabs comingdown so you have to be very careful when putting people out there."

Avalanche experts said the cause of the avalanche remained amystery. The Sportscotland Avalanche Information Service's (SAIS)report for Lochaber from 6pm on Tuesday to 6pm last night put therisk of avalanches between 200m and 900m as low. Between 900m and1,340m the risk was moderate, with natural avalanches "unlikely" andhuman-triggered avalanches "possible".

Mark Diggins, spokesman for SAIS, said: "This is a tragedy andit's a bit of a mystery. Until we go in to investigate, we cannotsay what happened and how they got avalanched in that location."

He said the area where the incident occurred was on a north-easterly slope. Fresh snow and strong winds had created morehazardous areas but generally on south, west and north-westerlyaspects, and not on easterly faces.

"This avalanche occurred on an east or northern-easterly aspect.But maybe there was an anomaly that created a patch or an area ofunstable snow.

"We are going to send some people to investigate and hopefullyhave some answers soon. We don't know the circumstances of thisincident but we need to learn from it."

SAIS has also been monitoring surface hoar, a phenomenon rare inScotland but seen recently, mainly in the Cairngorms.

Mr Diggins said: "We have had an extremely cold and calm spell.What normally happens is you get a process of freezing and thawingand a consolidation of the snow pack. What we've had recently isalmost the opposite of that because its been so cold the snow hasbecome sugar-like and has not bonded and consolidated."

WHY SO DEADLY?

CLIMBERS across the Highlands had been warned that unusually calmand extremely cold weather has raised the risk of avalanches.

Members of the Scottish Avalanche Information Service have beenmonitoring surface hoar, a phenomenon rarely seen in Scotland.

The snow crystals form a slippery layer when buried under snowand are the cause of many avalanches in the Alps and North America,according to SAIS.

Mark Diggins of SAIS said hoar surface had formed over about tendays of calm and extremely cold weather.

Normally, the crystals, which are created by vapour rising upfrom layers of deposited snow and then freezing on the surface, aredestroyed in a thaw or by high winds.

Mr Diggins said: "What we have got is an unusual climate becauseof this prolonged cold spell.

"This has been throwing up some unusual things, one of them beinghoar surface.

"The crystals can be quite dangerous if buried by further fallsof snow as they form a very, very weak layer. The crystals are a bitlike soap flakes and create a very slippery layer."

SAIS teams have been checking for hoar surface during routineassessments of avalanche risks in the northern and southernCairngorms, Lochaber, Creag Meagaidh and Glencoe.

The SAIS posts reports and forecasts online.